Buy or sell: Top stock trading ideas by market experts which are good short-term bets

The Nifty 50 closed higher for the second consecutive session and decisively crossed its crucial 10,650 resistance level on November 16. Positive global cues and appreciation of the rupee supported the market.

The index remained in a positive terrain throughout the session and closed 65.50 points higher at 10,682.20. On the weekly basis, the S&P BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 rose around 0.9 percent each for the week ended November 16.

The index formed a bullish candle on the daily charts and Hanging Man kind of pattern on the weekly charts.

According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,643.87, followed by 10,605.53. If the index starts moving upwards, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,707.87 and then 10,733.53.

The Nifty Bank index closed at 26,245.55, up 90.80 points on Friday. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 26,134.53, followed by 26,023.46. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 26,344.73, followed by 26,443.87

[“source=cnbc”]

Market timers are on the sidelines, which means you might want to jump in

Bear-market calls are rampant these days. Paul Tudor Jones says “really scary moments” are on the way. Jim Cramer warns there’s nowhere to hide in this “very serious correction.” Steve Cohen predicts that the bull is about to die a painful death.

Get the idea? Yeah, pretty sure you do.

So perhaps it is time to consider Baron Rothschild’s famous market take: “The time to buy is when there’s blood in the streets.” That’s gospel for contrarian investors, and despite the occasional market blip to the upside, there’s very little doubt that there’s blood flowing in the streets these days.

Which brings us to our chart of the day.

Amid all the reasons for doom and gloom, there’s one indicator that is pointing to a rally, at least for the short term: Market timers are sitting this one out.

According to this chart from Erin Swenlin of the DecisionPoint blog, the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) exposure reading hasn’t been this low since 2016, and that is typically taken as a contrarian indicator.

“They will sometimes be ‘right’ in their exposure in the very short term,” Swenlin wrote. “But in the intermediate term, price reversals nearly always occur.”

Swenlin did warn, however, that if a trend of lower and lower readings unfolds, a bear market could be coming, as was signaled before “the dam broke” in 2007.

“I would expect a small rally or bounce,” she wrote. “But we need to be cautious if these extremely low exposure readings continue lower.”

Not much of a rally or bounce taking shape yet.

The market

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average YMZ8, -0.35%  and the S&P 500 ESZ8, -0.38%  are looking rather sluggish this morning, as is the Nasdaq Composite NQZ8, -0.39% Gold GCZ8, -0.18%  is also in the red, as is silver SIZ8, -0.26% Crude oil CLZ8, +0.04% was providing a glimmer of green this morning before turning mostly flat to lower.

Overseas, Asia markets ADOW, +0.30%  and Europe markets SXXP, +0.17%  are doing just fine, with most major markets in the green.

The buzz

Last week was a chart-lover’s paradise, especially if said chart-lover was looking for warning signs in this unsteady stock market. Apple AAPL, -1.80% bitcoin BTCUSD, -5.75%  and oil CLZ8, +0.04%  were all ringing alarm bells in recent sessions, and they’ll surely be closely eyed by traders in the coming sessions.

Facebook FB, -0.5[“source=cnbc”]9%  is back in the news and looks set to stay there this week. In the latest development, CEO Mark Zuckerberg reportedly has adopted a more aggressive management style in recent months, driving away many top execs amid sinking employee morale. He apparently also blamed COO Sheryl Sandberg for the fallout of the Cambridge Analytica scandal, making her wonder if her job was secure, according to The Wall Street Journal. About a dozen high-profile execs have left Facebook this year.

[“source=cnbc”]

Stock Market Investment: Never do these 5 things when the markets are volatile

Volatility is not the cause but the manifestation of the problem. Here are some basic things that you need to avoid when you are in the midst of volatile markets.
stock market, stock market investment, stock market today, stock market India,  share market, 5 things not to do when markets are volatile, how to invest when markets are volatile

In a volatile market, you may find that your investment stocks are losing value more than they deserve.

How do we define volatility in the stock market? Intuitively there are some clear indications of a volatile market. For example, in a volatile market your stop losses will get triggered both on the short side and the long side. In a volatile market, you find that your investment stocks are losing value more than they deserve. You will also find that volatility makes the VIX ratio shoots up, which is why it is also called the Fear Index. It shows the amount of fear in the market and that results in volatility. What we need to understand here is that volatility is not the cause but it is the manifestation of the problem.

The chart above captures the movement of the Nifty and the Volatility index since August 01st 2018. For easier comparison, both the numbers have been indexed to the base of 100. It is clear that as volatility has gone up from the third week of September, the Nifty has drifted down. Even over longer periods of time, the Nifty and the VIX are inversely related. The question is about your investment strategy. Let us look at the five things that you must avoid when you are in the midst of a volatile market. Here are 5 things to avoid:

1. Don’t rush for the exits the moment you see volatility

You don’t need to rush for the exits the moment you see volatility. Remember that volatility is part and parcel of the market. More often than not, the volatility is caused by external factors and the volatility will quell along with that trigger. For example, in the current situation, the market volatility has been caused by the rupee weakness and the IL&FS crisis. Both are temporary. It is not like 2008 where the Lehman crisis was raising questions about the entire financial sector in the world. When you exit in a hurry, you lose out the long term potential of a stock. The Nifty may be down since the peak but since the beginning of the year it is only marginally down. When the markets turn volatile, it is time to take stock of your portfolio and stick to the winners and dilute your holdings in the stocks that are most vulnerable. Don’t just convert everything into cash.

2. Don’t be too enthusiastic about bottom fishing in volatile markets

It is normal for investors to feel that when they were willing to buy Stock A at Rs 3000, why they must not buy the same stock at Rs 2000. While this is a quality company and you may be right, there is an important point to remember here. When the markets crack over 10% in a short span of time with a rise in volatility, the markets can never show a V-shaped recovery. The recovery will be gradual and calibrated over time. Typically, markets recover when the last weak hand is exasperated and exits the market. Also markets bottom out in the midst of disinterest and not in the midst of volatility. You will surely get better prices on most stocks. Be careful of how you bottom fish in such markets.

3. Your SIP commitments must not be tampered

If you are into a monthly systematic investment plan of an equity fund, just don’t worry about the volatility. The SIP is designed to benefit from the volatility because when NAV is up you get more value and when the NAV is down you get more units. This will benefit you both ways through the power of rupee cost averaging. Most equity SIPs have done very well over longer periods of time irrespective of the volatility. The long term SIP returns of equity funds are much better than the returns on lump sum investments because the phased approach captures the benefits of volatility better.

4. Don’t jump into sectors that caused the volatility in the first place

This is a very important take-away for the investor. Look at the sectors that drove bear markets in the past, like cement, technology, real estate, capital goods etc. They were never the stocks that triggered the recovery. For example, most real estate stocks are still quoting at a fraction of the price which they quoted in 2007 or early 2008. Let us look at the present scenario. The correction was triggered by problems in the NBFC space and the mid cap space. These companies were exposed to financial risk and had lower standards of corporate governance. They have longer term problems and are unlikely to lead the recovery. At best, they can experience a short-lived burst of upward movement in a largely downward trend.

5. Don’t stretch your luck too far with futures positions

When markets are volatile, the last thing that you should be doing is leveraging yourself. There are various types of leveraging you should avoid. Avoid borrowing and investing just because the markets are looking cheap. You could take a hit both ways. Secondly, avoid too much of short trading. Your stop losses will get triggered and you will end up in losses on most occasions. Thirdly, futures may look to be a very appealing method but here again you are leveraged. Losses could really multiply in a volatile market.

These are some of the basic things that you need to avoid when you are in the midst of volatile markets. Otherwise, don’t tinker with your long-term financial plans too much.

[“source=cnbc”]

With elections looming, real estate, auto sectors are likely to be at the forefront

Indian bourses had a tumultuous year hitherto with the indices rallying in the first half only to give up all the gains in September and October.

Indian indices seem to have reached an inflection point where the events that occur now could largely govern and impact the direction we take over the next year.

We saw that outperformance and underperformance this year has largely been sector-specific, unlike previous bull and bear runs which we have to know to be more inclusive.

The biggest dent has been gross underperformance from the midcap and small-cap sectors which have corrected more than 20-30 percent in some cases.

With the festivities around the corner, demand does not seem to be picking across sectors, be it auto or textile manufacturers forecasting a lackluster season this year.

On the macroeconomic front, most of the reforms brought about by the Modi government look to have long-term positives for the economy, even though the short-term implications might have been hard for many industries be it small and large to deal.

The overhang from higher crude prices and a depreciating currency will continue to cast a shadow over the Indian sentiment.

With elections looming upon us and at this inflection point let’s look at some of the sectors that might be at tomorrow’s forefront.

a) Real estate:

Real estate in India remains largely overvalued, the cultural phenomenon associated with owning a home in many cases overpowers the yield this asset pays out. Rental yields in India at between three to four percent do not warrant the premium we pay for real estate in most cases.

We feel this sector is due for a large correction and continue to remain underweight here. Systemically over the longer term, we would expect this asset class to fall in line with global peers, the advent of RERA and new regulations could go a long way in bringing about better price discovery in this sector.

b) Auto:

Weak investor and consumer sentiments ate up into the festive gains of automobile manufacturers in October resulting in tepid sales growth for leading car manufacturers.

While the market leader Maruti Suzuki saw marginal year-on-year growth of 1.5 percent in domestic sales in October at 138,100 units, Hyundai Motors India registered a 4.9 percent growth in domestic sales during the month at 52,001 units.

Slowing auto demand is one of the first precursors to foretell the health of an economy, weak auto demand today in the commercial sector may manifest into weakness in the overall economy next year.

C) IT and Pharma:

A depreciating rupee has aided this sector, which could well be considered the saving grace in the fall we are witnessing now. These sectors are largely export-oriented, and a five percent correction in the rupee will add to margins substantially. Bear in mind this advantage only lasts over a few quarters post which the macros generally realign.

To summarize the overall outlook, though most sectors look to be slowing down on a relative basis, we remain one of the fastest growing economies today.

We maintain a neutral outlook for the next 12 months and see further room for correction with the benchmark indices still trading at valuations higher than the long-term mean post this correction.

Disclaimer: The author is Co-Founder of Zerodha. The views and investment tips expressed by investment expert on moneycontrol.com are her own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

 

Real Estate Agents Answer: What Are The Worst Mistakes Sellers Make?

Selling a home is an emotional process, one that can make sellers susceptible to all sorts of pitfalls along the way. In an effort to help make the transition easier, we asked top real estate agents to point out the biggest mistakes that sellers make. Read them over so you don’t fall into the same traps.

Forgetting about curb appeal:

“If you can’t get the buyer’s through the front door, any interior improvements might not matter. Take time to lay new sod, plant hedges, or colorful flowers to create an inviting entrance to the home and set the stage for your buyers to fall in love. The old saying still reigns true: you never get a second chance to make a first impression.”

– Les Waites, Agent, The Keyes Company

Pricing your home too high:

One of the biggest mistakes a seller can make is to price their home high. Sellers will think they can always reduce the price if needed. However, the problem with this approach is the home will sit on the market until the home is priced right and it may become stigmatized. Price your home right  from the start – based on comparable recent sales, upgrades, and condition – and it will sell fast.”

– John Myers, Broker/Owner, Myers & Myers Real Estate

Not preparing the home for sale:

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“The biggest mistake I see is sellers who try to rush to put a property on the market without the proper preparation. Too often, I see sellers disregard easy steps like decluttering and staging their home. If they would’ve taken the extra time to do these things, they could very well see a higher purchase price and save time on the market. Real estate is like any other product — proper delivery is paramount to success.”

-Talbot Sutter, President/Broker, Sutter & Nugent Real Estate

Neglecting to make necessary repairs:

“Many homeowners who are planning on selling within a few months or years tend to put off maintenance because ‘it won’t be their problem for long,’ but this can prove to be a costly mistake. Once you sell the property, you will have to disclose all known defects to a potential buyer. It’s likely that the repairs will be more expensive to fix later and will come off the sales price of your home.”

– Craig Mracek, CEO of Keylo

Investing in unnecessary upgrades:

“One of the biggest mistakes sellers make is investing into upgrades that a new buyer may or may not want. Remodeling a kitchen or bathroom can be a large undertaking and involves a lot of preference. Doing so right before selling rarely leads to a return in investment, especially when carrying costs during the renovations are considered.”
– Jamie Klingman, Broker/Owner, Boutique Realty Florida
Taking low offers too personally:
Sellers who are trying to get top dollar for their property need to recognize that the buyers are trying to pay the least amount possible for that property. If a low offer comes in, try not to take it personally. It may be a starting point for negotiation or it may be an automatic ‘no’, but either way, it’s important to keep a level head while making your final decision. “
[“source=forbes]

3 dangerous fires are burning across California, and 6 people died in their cars as they tried to escape

Woolsey Fire

Three dangerous wildfires are raging in California.

The Camp Fire, in northern California, started Thursday morning and quickly charred the entire town of Paradise, which is home to 27,000. The flames grew so fast — a pace of 80 football fields per minute— that four people were burned to death in their cars, the Butte County sheriff Korey Honea told the Associated Press. One deceased person was found near a vehicle.

According to the sheriff, the department has received 35 missing persons reports. So far, at least nine people have died as a result of the Camp Fire. In addition to those found in or near a vehicle, one person was found inside a home.

As of 6:00 p.m. PT, fire officials said the blaze had burned 90,000 acres in just over 24 hours, and was 5% contained.

More than 6,700 structures were destroyed. It is now considered the most destructive wildfire in California history in terms of the number of structures destroyed.

To the south, on the outskirts of Los Angeles, two smaller fires also started Thursday and are now creating havoc for drivers and forcing homeowners to flee. The Woolsey and Hill Fires are burning through parts of Ventura and LA counties. The flames have threatened the homes of celebrities such as Kim Kardashian and shut down stretches of the 101 freeway.

Inside the city limits of LA, another smaller fire broke out Friday morning in Griffith Park near the zoo. Firefighters there are scrambling to reach the area by helicopter, since it’s not accessible by truck.

Southern California fire officials say the flames have burned at least 150 homes. They say that number is likely to increase.

Already this year, 7,578 fires have burned across California, fueled by hot, dry conditions and aggressive winds.

Camp Fire claims at least 9 lives

The Camp Fire started about 6:30 a.m. on Thursday. So far, more than 6,700 structures have burned and thousands more are threatened.

According to the Butte County sheriff’s office, five of the people whose deaths have been confirmed were found near Edgewood Lane in Paradise, California, in or near “vehicles that were overcome by the Camp Fire.” The sheriff’s office was not yet able to identify those victims because of their burn injuries. Other residents ran from the fire, the Sacramento Bee reported.

camp fire burns down paradise, CA nov 8 18
A sign is posted on the Paradise Skilled Nursing center as it is consumed by flames from the Camp Fire on Thursday in Paradise.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

California Acting Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in Butte County because of the Camp Fire Thursday, and sent a letter to President Donald Trump and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) asking for federal assistance.

[“source=forbes]